This Christian Life

The American Empire

Recently a friend struck up a (rather serious) conversation about how America, as an empire, could be heading toward the end of it’s run. All the signs are pointing that direction and history is proof that it happens. Here’s a brief synopsis of a book he read that outlines the whole scenario.

Sir Glubb was a British military officer who spent his career in the Mid-East and observed that the life cycle of empires is predictable and had been repeated many times in history. He categorized phases of the empire life cycle and calculated an average life span of 250 years (Rome is the outlier at 1000 years). His categories are as follows:

1. Outburst - amazingly rapid expansion (Macedonian, Arab, Mongol, Spanish) reckless bravery and daring initiative.
2. Conquest - incredible enterprise, courage and hardihood, more organized than outburst, exploration, pioneering, duty, glory.
3. Commerce - unified empire in economics, language, and law enables great growth.
4. Affluence - rise of prosperity, epically commercial classes, desire for $ becomes prime focus instead of glory and duty, persure education that gives highest salary, expansion ends (the great wall).
5. Intellect - Efforts funded by commerce and affluence, great number of universities arise, loss of duty and self-sacrifice.
6. Decadence - civil dissensions, influx of foreigners, loss of morality, accelerating materialism, influence of women, rise of the welfare state, frivolity, pessimism, and the decline of religion.
7. Decline and Collapse - barbarian attacks, civil war, fragmentation, decline to irrelevance.

Each age is easily identified by the heroes in the popular culture.

The book: When The Empire Strikes Out, by William R. Goetz which references this book: The Fate of Empires and Search for Survival 1981, by Sir John Glubb, William Blackwood and Sons Ltd., Edinburgh